HOW TO PREDICT FOOTBALL GAMES
Betting activity starts with the bookies setting odds for different games and at different markets.
It is then up to the bettor to select from the games and the odds which the bookies have set out.
To select these games bettors need to make their predictions. To win these bets the bettors need to predict right.
By following us at surestakes.com, you will learn how to predict football matches; not just predicting it but also predicting it right.
We will help you develop a prediction system that suits your betting style and strategies.
Wouldn’t it be a waste of time to spend some much energy on studying one or two football games only to realise that the bets have no value?
So no matter how good you might think you are with predictions or your eagerness to learn, make sure you start right by predicting the value bets.
Unless you are doing it for the practice or for the fun of it, it is important first, to find if the bet has value before you start working on your predictions.
Now that we have sorted the issue of finding value in a bet, the next thing to look out for is doing it over the long term.
By bearing the long term in mind we are looking at two things:
- Can you find enough value bets?
- Can the value bets be found across different markets?
By enough value bet, we mean how many of them you can find in a week, month or season.
Will it be enough to generate a reasonable profit in the long run?
The point to note here is that there is no value in insufficient value bets.
If out of every 40 games played only one value bet is found, then it might not be worth the time and effort.
But maybe if enough value bet cannot be found in one market, let’s say the over/under market, finding value in other markets can make up the deficit.
Hence, if other markets are looked at and more value bets can be found then the prediction system the bettor uses is good to start with.
Just Before You Start Predicting
There are some important factors that need to be considered before developing a system for your football prediction.
The first of it is the data you have.
These data have to be easily accessible and enough for you to be able to correctly measure a team performance.
Some of these data are:
- Possession percentage
- Goals per game ratio
- Goal conversion
- Home/away wins, etc.
It is also important to look at the sample size of the data you have.
Is it collected over a whole season, 20 matches or first 10 matches of a season?
All these have a role to play in your predictions.
Another thing to look at is your technicality and methods.
Here we look at things such as:
- The number of value bets your model identifies
- How updated your spreadsheets are
- If your feed is manual or automated
- How good your Pc and internet skills are, etc.
The Use of Statistical Analysis
Imagine after you collate your data, you can use statistical tools to measure them.
One can say that as long as you can measure them, you can predict them. This will help improve your winning odds.
However, that doesn’t mean that it is easy given the nature of football.
Unlike other sports, such as basketball, soccer is a game of very few chances and very few goals.
Sometimes in football, a game would have played for 45 minutes and there would be no registered shot on target.
Since this game comes with small margins, datasets can quickly be redundant.
The best team that might have created 20 chances doesn’t necessarily win the match.
Notwithstanding, statistics helps a lot in predicting games because a huge percentage of bettors are doing all they can to beat the bookie’s odds by analysing team and player stats.
Some of the most popular analysis/stats used are:
- Head to head analysis to compare teams
- Regression analysis to find key factors influencing the result of a game
- Poisson distribution to find out the potential scoreline in a game
- Player ratings
- Home wins percentage, etc.
You can download our different statistical tools/models at surestakes.com.
However, there are still a lot of posts published online that are against the dependency of statistics when it comes to betting.
These posts assert that stats stand to be challenged.
They claim that a lot of stats do not affect the performance of a bet.
The Mathematics in it
Understanding your odds, predicting and placing your bets just needs simple mathematical calculation.
To successful predict your bet and know how you are doing in the market, all you need is a simple mathematical equation.
Before you place a bet, you can simply find out if it has good value by multiplying the chance of a team winning by the given odd.
For example, a team that has a 90% chance of winning at an odd of 1.40 will have a good value of about 1.26 (0.90*1.40).
Because 1.26 is greater than 1, the bet has good value.
Imagine also that the average odd you place your bet on is 2.8 and in a season you win 50% of your bets.
This means you win half of your bets.
To check your success rate you can use the equation: A= (B*C)
Where B = your odds average and C= % win
Thus A= 2.8 *0.5= 1.4
Because 1.4 is greater than 1, you will win in the long run.
How Your Predictions Can Win
With the mathematical example above, you win by figuring out what you can do to make sure that your result is always greater than one.
This applies to both your value bet and your average betting over a period.
For the value bets which you choose to predict, make sure that the percentage chance of winning when multiplied by the given odds is always greater than one.
For your overall predictions, make sure that your odds average are high enough, or increase your bet win percentage.