In this Serie A fixture Cagliari will host Genoa.
Cagliari are 14th with 23 points. That`s 13 more than relegation zone Crotone. 19 of those points came at home for them, where they have been pretty solid this season, losing only against Napoli and Fiorentina. However, they conceded 10 goals in those two games. They have conceded most goals in the league by far – 43, and managed to keep only one clean sheet this season. Last time out, they got beaten by Milan at San Siro by goal from Bacca in 88th minute. They were holding up pretty good, and limited Milan to practically zero chances until that goal, but ended up with nothing. They will be missing injured Ionita and Melchiorri, as well as suspended Bruno Alves who got sent off against Milan.
Genoa are 12th with the same number of points as Cagliari, only with better goal difference. They are on a bad run lately, losing four out of the last five matches, beating only Fiorentina at home. When looking at their away form, they don`t have a win since the beginning of October, scoring only two times durign that period. It has to be said however, they played against Atalanta, Lazio, Inter and Torino. They will be without injured Perin, Veloso and Biraschi, as well as Gakpe who is on Africa Cup of Nations.
Genoa will be determined to break their bad away run, but it won`t be easy against Cagliari who have been really solid at home. Cagliari has the worst defense in the league, conceding in all but one game this season. But they have also scored in all but one home game this season, and every time at least two goals. Every single one of their home games this season saw more than two goals being scored, and while Genoa haven`t been prolific lately, I see them scoring here. They haven`t been at their best this season, and even though their coach Juric is a great tactician, he will be aware that he should take advantage of Cagliari`s defensive vulnerability. Even if that doesn`t happen, I wouldn`t be surprised if Cagliari scored three on their own. Therefore I will go with over 2.5 goals here.